专题：聚焦杰克逊霍尔寰球央行年会开云(中国)Kaiyun·官方网站 - 登录入口

　　来源：智堡Mikko　

　　好意思联储主席鲍威尔22日上昼在怀俄明州杰克逊霍尔举行的好意思联储年度研讨会上发表了年度谈话。

　　以下为演讲全文

　　Over the course of this year， the U.S． economy has shown resilience in a context of sweeping changes in economic policy． In terms of the Fed‘s dual-mandate goals， the labor market remains near maximum employment， and inflation， though still somewhat elevated， has come down a great deal from its post-pandemic highs． At the same time， the balance of risks appears to be shifting．

　　本年以来，在经济战术发生往常变化的配景下，好意思国经济展现出了韧性。就好意思联储的双重责任场地而言，劳能源市集仍接近充分办事状态，而通货扩张虽仍有些偏高，但已从疫情后的高点大幅回落。与此同期，风险的均衡似乎正在升沉。

　　In my remarks today， I will first address the current economic situation and the near-term outlook for monetary policy． I will then turn to the results of our second public review of our monetary policy framework， as captured in the revised Statement on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy that we released today．

　　在我今天的谈话中，我将开头谈谈面前的经济时事和货币战术的近期预计。然后，我将转向咱们今天发布的、经校正的《历久场地与货币战术策略声明》中所体现的、咱们第二劣货币战术框架公开评估的收尾。

　　Current Economic Conditions and Near-Term Outlook

　　面前经济情景与近期预计

　　When I appeared at this podium one year ago， the economy was at an inflection point． Our policy rate had stood at 5-1/4 to 5-1/2 percent for more than a year． That restrictive policy stance was appropriate to help bring down inflation and to foster a sustainable balance between aggregate demand and supply． Inflation had moved much closer to our objective， and the labor market had cooled from its formerly overheated state． Upside risks to inflation had diminished． But the unemployment rate had increased by almost a full percentage point， a development that historically has not occurred outside of recessions． Over the subsequent three Federal Open Market Committee （FOMC） meetings， we recalibrated our policy stance， setting the stage for the labor market to remain in balance near maximum employment over the past year （figure 1）．

　　一年前我站上这个讲台时，经济正处于一个转换点。咱们的战术利率已在5.25%至5.5%的水平上看护了一年多。这种箝制性的战术态度是妥当的，有助于镌汰通胀并促进总需求与总供给之间达成可执续的均衡。通胀已相等接近咱们的场地，劳能源市集也已从先前过热的状态降温。通胀的上行风险照旧减弱。但空隙率上升了近一个百分点，这种情况在历史上除了零落时期外从未发生过。在随后的三次联邦公开市集委员会（FOMC）会议上，咱们重新校准了咱们的战术态度，为夙昔一年劳能源市集在接近充分办事的水平上保执均衡奠定了基础（图1）。

　　This year， the economy has faced new challenges． Significantly higher tariffs across our trading partners are remaking the global trading system． Tighter immigration policy has led to an abrupt slowdown in labor force growth． Over the longer run， changes in tax， spending， and regulatory policies may also have important implications for economic growth and productivity． There is significant uncertainty about where all of these polices will eventually settle and what their lasting effects on the economy will be．

　　本年，经济靠近着新的挑战。咱们交易伙伴间大幅提升的关税正在重塑寰球交易体系。更紧的侨民战术导致了劳能源增长的倏得放缓。从更永久来看，税收、支拨和监管战术的变化也可能对经济增长和分娩率产生要紧影响。通盘这些战术最终将走向何方，以及它们对经济的执久影响将是什么，皆存在着巨大的不笃定性。

　　Changes in trade and immigration policies are affecting both demand and supply． In this environment， distinguishing cyclical developments from trend， or structural， developments is difficult． This distinction is critical because monetary policy can work to stabilize cyclical fluctuations but can do little to alter structural changes．

　　交易和侨民战术的变化正在同期影响需乞降供给。在这种环境下，差别周期性发展与趋势性（或结构性）发展是用功的。这一差别至关要紧，因为货币战术可致使力贯通周期性波动，但对编削结构性变化窝囊为力。

　　The labor market is a case in point． The July employment report released earlier this month showed that payroll job growth slowed to an average pace of only 35，000 per month over the past three months， down from 168，000 per month during 2024 （figure 2）． This slowdown is much larger than assessed just a month ago， as the earlier figures for May and June were revised down substantially． But it does not appear that the slowdown in job growth has opened up a large margin of slack in the labor market--an outcome we want to avoid． The unemployment rate， while edging up in July， stands at a historically low level of 4.2 percent and has been broadly stable over the past year． Other indicators of labor market conditions are also little changed or have softened only modestly， including quits， layoffs， the ratio of vacancies to unemployment， and nominal wage growth． Labor supply has softened in line with demand， sharply lowering the “breakeven” rate of job creation needed to hold the unemployment rate constant． Indeed， labor force growth has slowed considerably this year with the sharp falloff in immigration， and the labor force participation rate has edged down in recent months．

　　劳能源市集等于一个很好的例子。本月早些时候发布的7月份办事答复夸耀，夙昔三个月平均每月新增办事岗亭放缓至仅3.5万个，低于2024年技术的每月16.8万个（图2）。这一放缓幅度高大于仅一个月前的评估，因为5月和6月的早期数据被大幅下修。但这似乎并未导致劳能源市集出现咱们但愿幸免的无数轻易。空隙率虽在7月份略有上升，但仍处于4.2%的历史低位，并在夙昔一年中基本保执贯通。其他劳能源市集情景狡计也变化不大或仅良善走软，包括去职、裁人、职位空白与空隙东谈主数之比以及口头工资增长。劳能源供接管需求同步走软，大幅镌汰了看护空隙率不变所需的“盈亏均衡”办事创造率。事实上，跟着侨民数目的急剧下落，本年的劳能源增长已显贵放缓，劳能源参与率在近几个月也有所下落。

　　Overall， while the labor market appears to be in balance， it is a curious kind of balance that results from a marked slowing in both the supply of and demand for workers． This unusual situation suggests that downside risks to employment are rising． And if those risks materialize， they can do so quickly in the form of sharply higher layoffs and rising unemployment．

　　总体而言，诚然劳能源市集看似处于均衡状态，但这是一种由劳能源供给和需求双双显贵放缓所导致的奇特均衡状态。这种不寻常的情况标明，办事的下行风险正在上升。而要是这些风险成为现实，它们可能以裁人急剧加多和空隙率上升的形式速即夸耀。

　　At the same time， GDP growth has slowed notably in the first half of this year to a pace of 1.2 percent， roughly half the 2.5 percent pace in 2024 （figure 3）． The decline in growth has largely reflected a slowdown in consumer spending． As with the labor market， some of the slowing in GDP likely reflects slower growth of supply or potential output．

　　与此同期，本年上半年GDP增长已显贵放缓至1.2%的水平，约为2024年2.5%增速的一半（图3）。增长的下滑主要响应了肆虐支拨的放缓。与劳能源市集相似，GDP的部分放缓可能响应了供给或潜在产出增长的放缓。

　　Turning to inflation， higher tariffs have begun to push up prices in some categories of goods． Estimates based on the latest available data indicate that total PCE prices rose 2.6 percent over the 12 months ending in July． Excluding the volatile food and energy categories， core PCE prices rose 2.9 percent， above their level a year ago． Within core， prices of goods increased 1.1 percent over the past 12 months， a notable shift from the modest decline seen over the course of 2024． In contrast， housing services inflation remains on a downward trend， and nonhousing services inflation is still running at a level a bit above what has been historically consistent with 2 percent inflation （figure 4）．

　　转向通胀方面，更高的关税已启动推高某些类别商品的价钱。基于最新可用数据的算计夸耀，在摈弃7月的12个月里，总体PCE价钱高涨了2.6%。剔除波动的食物和能源类别后，中枢PCE价钱高涨了2.9%，高于一年前的水平。在中枢通胀里面，夙昔12个月商品价钱高涨了1.1%，这与2024年技术出现的良善下落比较是一个显贵的升沉。比较之下，住房服务通胀仍处于下落趋势，而非住房服务通胀的运行水平仍略高于历史上与2%通胀相符的水平（图4）。

　　The effects of tariffs on consumer prices are now clearly visible． We expect those effects to accumulate over coming months， with high uncertainty about timing and amounts． The question that matters for monetary policy is whether these price increases are likely to materially raise the risk of an ongoing inflation problem． A reasonable base case is that the effects will be relatively short lived--a one-time shift in the price level． Of course， “one-time” does not mean “all at once．” It will continue to take time for tariff increases to work their way through supply chains and distribution networks． Moreover， tariff rates continue to evolve， potentially prolonging the adjustment process．

　　关税抵肆虐价钱的影响当今已清爽可见。咱们预计这些影响将在改日几个月内积蓄，但其时刻和幅度存在高度不笃定性。对货币战术而言，要紧的问题是，这些价钱高涨是否可能本色性地加多执续性通胀问题的风险。一个合理的基准情景是，其影响将是相对顷刻的——即物价水平的一次性变动。天然，“一次性”并不料味着“一次完成”。关税上调需要时刻才气传导至通盘这个词供应链和分销收罗。此外，关税税率仍在继续变化，可能会延迟革新经由。

　　It is also possible， however， that the upward pressure on prices from tariffs could spur a more lasting inflation dynamic， and that is a risk to be assessed and managed． One possibility is that workers， who see their real incomes decline because of higher prices， demand and get higher wages from employers， setting off adverse wage--price dynamics． Given that the labor market is not particularly tight and faces increasing downside risks， that outcome does not seem likely．

　　然则，关税带来的价钱上行压力也有可能激发更执久的通胀动态，这是一个需要评估和惩处的风险。一种可能性是，因物价高涨而推行收入下落的工东谈主，向老板建议并获取了更高的工资要求，从而激发不利的工资-物价动态。鉴于劳能源市集并非突出殷切且靠近日益加多的下行风险，这种收尾似乎不太可能发生。

　　Another possibility is that inflation expectations could move up， dragging actual inflation with them． Inflation has been above our target for more than four years and remains a prominent concern for households and businesses． Measures of longer-term inflation expectations， however， as reflected in market- and survey-based measures， appear to remain well anchored and consistent with our longer-run inflation objective of 2 percent．

　　另一种可能性是通胀预期可能上升，并带动推行通胀随之上行。通胀已谄谀四年多高于咱们的场地，何况仍然是家庭和企业的一个卓绝担忧。然则，从基于市集和打听的狡计来看，历久通胀预期似乎仍保执细致锚定，并与咱们2%的历久通胀场地相符。

　　Of course， we cannot take the stability of inflation expectations for granted． Come what may， we will not allow a one-time increase in the price level to become an ongoing inflation problem．

　　天然，咱们不可想天然地合计通胀预期会保执贯通。无论发生什么，咱们皆不会允许物价水平的一次性高涨演造成一个执续的通胀问题。

　　Putting the pieces together， what are the implications for monetary policy？ In the near term， risks to inflation are tilted to the upside， and risks to employment to the downside--a challenging situation． When our goals are in tension like this， our framework calls for us to balance both sides of our dual mandate． Our policy rate is now 100 basis points closer to neutral than it was a year ago， and the stability of the unemployment rate and other labor market measures allows us to proceed carefully as we consider changes to our policy stance． Nonetheless， with policy in restrictive territory， the baseline outlook and the shifting balance of risks may warrant adjusting our policy stance．

　　概括来看，这对货币战术有何启示？在短期内，通胀风险偏朝上行，而办事风险偏向下行——这是一个充满挑战的场面。当咱们的场地像这么处于殷切干系时，咱们的框架要求咱们在双重责任的两方面进行均衡。咱们的战术利率当今比一年前离中性水平近了100个基点，而空隙率和其他劳能源市集狡计的贯通性使咱们大要在计议编削战术态度时审慎行事。尽管如斯，在战术处于箝制性区域的情况下，基线远景和继续变化的风险均衡可能需要咱们革新战术态度。

　　Monetary policy is not on a preset course． FOMC members will make these decisions， based solely on their assessment of the data and its implications for the economic outlook and the balance ofrisks． We will never deviate from that approach．

　　货币战术莫得预设的旅途。联邦公开市集委员会的成员将仅凭据他们对数据过甚对经济远景和风险均衡影响的评估来作念出这些决定。咱们历久不会偏离这一设施。

　　Evolution of Monetary Policy Framework

　　货币战术框架的演变

　　Turning to my second topic， our monetary policy framework is built on the unchanging foundation of our mandate from Congress to foster maximum employment and stable prices for the American people． We remain fully committed to fulfilling our statutory mandate， and the revisions to our framework will support that mission across a broad range of economic conditions． Our revised Statement on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy， which we refer to as our consensus statement， describes how we pursue our dual-mandate goals． It is designed to give the public a clear sense of how we think about monetary policy， and that understanding is important both for transparency and accountability， and for making monetary policy more effective．

　　转向我的第二个主题，咱们的货币战术框架诞生在国会授予咱们的、为好意思国东谈主民促进充分办事和贯通物价这一不变的责任基础之上。咱们仍然齐全接力于于实践咱们的法定责任，对咱们框架的校正将在往常的经济条款下撑执这一责任。咱们经校正的《历久场地与货币战术策略声明》，咱们称之为共鸣声明，形色了咱们怎样追求咱们的双重责任场地。它旨在让公众明晰地了解咱们怎样想考货币战术，而这种贯通对于透明度和问责制，以及使货币战术更有用皆至关要紧。

　　The changes we made in this review are a natural progression， grounded in our ever-evolving understanding of our economy． We continue to build upon the initial consensus statement adopted in 2012 under Chair Ben Bernanke‘s leadership． Today’s revised statement is the outcome of the second public review of our framework， which we conduct at five-year intervals．  This year‘s review included three elements： Fed Listens events at Reserve Banks around the country， a flagship research conference， and policymaker discussions and deliberations， supported by staff analysis， at a series of FOMC meetings．

　　咱们在这次评估中所作念的编削是一个天然的演进经由，植根于咱们对经济继续深入的贯通。咱们连接在2012年本·伯南克主席辅导下通过的当先共鸣声明的基础上发展。今天经校正的声明是咱们框架第二次公开评估的收尾，咱们每五年进行一次评估。本年的评估包括三个要素：在寰宇各储备银行举行的“好意思联储在倾听”（Fed Listens）活动，一次旗舰议论会议，以及在一系列FOMC会议上由管当事人谈主员分析撑执的决议者盘考和审议。

　　In approaching this year‘s review， a key objective has been to make sure that our framework is suitable across a broad range of economic conditions． At the same time， the framework needs to evolve with changes in the structure of the economy and our understanding of those changes． The Great Depression presented different challenges from those of the Great Inflation and the Great Moderation， which in turn are different from the ones we face today．

　　在进行本年的评估时，一个要津场地是确保咱们的框架适用于往常的经济条款。与此同期，框架需要跟着经济结构的变化以及咱们对这些变化的贯通而演变。大荒僻建议的挑战不同于大通胀和大减弱时期的挑战，而这些又与咱们今天靠近的挑战不同。

　　At the time of the last review， we were living in a new normal， characterized by the proximity of interest rates to the effective lower bound （ELB）， along with low growth， low inflation， and a very flat Phillips curve--meaning that inflation was not very responsive to slack in the economy． To me， a statistic that captures that era is that our policy rate was stuck at the ELB for seven long years following the onset of the Global Financial Crisis （GFC） in late 2008． Many here will recall the sluggish growth and painfully slow recovery of that era． It appeared highly likely that if the economy experienced even a mild downturn， our policy rate would be back at the ELB very quickly， probably for another extended period． Inflation and inflation expectations could then decline in a weak economy， raising real interest rates as nominal rates were pinned near zero． Higher real rates would further weigh on job growth and reinforce the downward pressure on inflation and inflation expectations， triggering an adverse dynamic．

　　在上一次评估时，咱们活命在一个新常态中，其特色是利率接近有用利率下限（ELB），同期伴跟着低增长、低通胀和一条相等平坦的菲利普斯弧线——这意味着通胀对经济中的轻易反应不奢睿。对我而言，一个能捕捉阿谁期间特征的统计数据是，自2008年末寰球金融危急（GFC）爆发后，咱们的战术利率在有用利率下限上停留了长达七年之久。在座的好多东谈主皆会紧记阿谁期间增长乏力和复苏极其冉冉的灾祸。其时看来，极有可能的情况是，即使经济资格一次良善的零落，咱们的战术利率也会很快回到有用利率下限，并可能再次停留很长一段时刻。届时，通胀和通胀预期可能在疲弱的经济中下落，在口头利率被钉在近零水平的情况下推高推行利率。更高的推行利率会进一步牵扯办事增长，并加重通胀和通胀预期的下行压力，从而激发一种不利的动态。

　　The economic conditions that brought the policy rate to the ELB and drove the 2020 framework changes were thought to be rooted in slow-moving global factors that would persist for an extended period--and might well have done so， if not for the pandemic． The 2020 consensus statement included several features that addressed the ELB-related risks that had become increasingly prominent over the preceding two decades． We emphasized the importance of anchored longer-term inflation expectations to support both our price-stability and maximum-employment goals． Drawing on an extensive literature on strategies to mitigate risks associated with the ELB， we adopted flexible average inflation targeting--a “makeup” strategy to ensure that inflation expectations would remain well anchored even with the ELB constraint． In particular， we said that， following periods when inflation had been running persistently below 2 percent， appropriate monetary policy would likely aim to achieve inflation moderately above 2 percent for some time．

　　那些将战术利率推至有用利率下限并股东2020年框架变革的经济情景，被合计根植于冉冉变化的寰球性身分，这些身分将执续很长一段时刻——要是不是因为疫情，它们很可能照实如斯。2020年的共鸣声明包含了几个搪塞夙昔二十年日益卓绝的、与有用利率下限磋磨风险的特征。咱们强调了锚定历久通胀预期对于撑执咱们价钱贯通和充分办事双重场地的要紧性。鉴戒无数对于减轻有用利率下限磋磨风险策略的文献，咱们遴荐了纯真形式的平均通胀场地制——一种“弥补”策略，以确保即使在有用利率下限的敛迹下，通胀预期也能保执细致锚定。具体来说，咱们暗意，在通胀执续低于2%的时期事后，妥当的货币战术可能会在一段时刻内旨在杀青适度高于2%的通胀。

　　In the event， rather than low inflation and the ELB， the post-pandemic reopening brought the highest inflation in 40 years to economies around the world． Like most other central banks and private-sector analysts， through year-end 2021 we thought that inflation would subside fairly quickly without a sharp tightening in our policy stance （figure 5）． When it became clear that this was not the case， we responded forcefully， raising our policy rate by 5.25 percentage points over 16 months． That action， combined with the unwinding of pandemic supply disruptions， contributed to inflation moving much closer to our target without the painful rise in unemployment that has accompanied previous efforts to counter high inflation．

　　收尾，后疫情时期的重新敞开带来的不是低通胀和有用利率下限，而是寰球经济体40年来最高的通胀。像大多数其他央行和私营部门分析师相似，直到2021年底，咱们皆合计通胀会在莫得咱们大幅收紧战术态度的情况下止境快地消退（图5）。当情况变得无际并非如斯时，咱们作念出了强有劲的回话，在16个月内将咱们的战术利率提升了5.25个百分点。这一瞥动，加上疫情技术供应中断的缓解，促使通胀在莫得跟随以往起义高通胀时出现的灾祸的空隙率上升的情况下，更接近咱们的场地。

　　Elements of the Revised Consensus Statement

　　经校正的共鸣声明的要素

　　This year‘s review considered how economic conditions have evolved over the past five years． During this period， we saw that the inflation situation can change rapidly in the face of large shocks． In addition， interest rates are now substantially higher than was the case during the era between the GFC and the pandemic． With inflation above target， our policy rate is restrictive--modestly so， in my view． We cannot say for certain where rates will settle out over the longer run， but their neutral level may now be higher than during the 2010s， reflecting changes in productivity， demographics， fiscal policy， and other factors that affect the balance between saving and investment （figure 6）． During the review， we discussed how the 2020 statement’s focus on the ELB may have complicated communications about our response to high inflation． We concluded that the emphasis on an overly specific set of economic conditions may have led to some confusion， and， as a result， we made several important changes to the consensus statement to reflect that insight．

　　本年的评估计议了夙昔五年经济情景的演变。在此技术，咱们看到在巨大冲击面前，通胀时事不错速即编削。此外，当今的利率水平远高于寰球金融危急与疫情之间时期的水平。在通胀高于场地的情况下，咱们的战术利率是箝制性的——在我看来，是良善的箝制性。咱们无法笃定利率在历久内将贯通在那儿，但其中性水平当今可能高于2010年代，这响应了分娩率、东谈主口结构、财政战术以过甚他影响储蓄与投资均衡身分的变化（图6）。在评估技术，咱们盘考了2020年声明对有用利率下限的关爱，可能怎样使咱们对高通胀回话的相通变得复杂。咱们得出论断，对一套过于特定的经济条款的强调可能导致了一些困惑，因此，咱们对共鸣声明作念出了几项要紧修改以响应这一视力。

　　First， we removed language indicating that the ELB was a defining feature of the economic landscape． Instead， we noted that our “monetary policy strategy is designed to promote maximum employment and stable prices across a broad range of economic conditions．” The difficulty of operating near the ELB remains a potential concern， but it is not our primary focus． The revised statement reiterates that the Committee is prepared to use its full range of tools to achieve its maximum-employment and price-stability goals， particularly if the federal funds rate is constrained by the ELB．

　　开头，咱们删除了标明有用利率下限是经济时势决定性特征的措辞。相背，咱们指出，咱们的“货币战术策略旨在在往常的经济条款下促进充分办事和贯通物价”。在有用利率下限近邻操作的用功仍然是一个潜在的担忧，但它不是咱们的主要焦点。经校正的声明重申，委员会准备好使用其一起器用来杀青其充分办事和价钱贯通的场地，突出是在联邦基金利率受到有用利率下限敛迹的情况下。

　　Second， we returned to a framework of flexible inflation targeting and eliminated the “makeup” strategy． As it turned out， the idea of an intentional， moderate inflation overshoot had proved irrelevant． There was nothing intentional or moderate about the inflation that arrived a few months after we announced our 2020 changes to the consensus statement， as I acknowledged publicly in 2021．

　　其次，咱们回来了纯真通胀场地制的框架，并取消了“弥补”策略。事实讲授，特意让通胀适度超调的主义已变得卑不足谈。在咱们通知2020年共鸣声明修改后的几个月里到来的通胀，既非特意也非适度，这少许我已在2021年公开承认。

　　Well-anchored inflation expectations were critical to our success in bringing down inflation without a sharp increase in unemployment． Anchored expectations promote the return of inflation to target when adverse shocks drive inflation higher， and limit the risk of deflation when the economy weakens． Further， they allow monetary policy to support maximum employment in economic downturns without compromising price stability． Our revised statement emphasizes our commitment to act forcefully to ensure that longer-term inflation expectations remain well anchored， to the benefit of both sides of our dual mandate． It also notes that “price stability is essential for a sound and stable economy and supports the well-being of all Americans．” This theme came through loud and clear at our Fed Listens events． The past five years have been a painful reminder of the hardship that high inflation imposes， especially on those least able to meet the higher costs of necessities．

　　细致锚定的通胀预期对于咱们在莫得导致空隙率急剧上升的情况下见效镌汰通胀至关要紧。锚定的预期在不利冲击推高通胀时能促进通胀回来场地，并在经济疲软时箝制通缩风险。此外，它们允许货币战术在经济零落时撑执充分办事而不毁伤价钱贯通。咱们经校正的声明强调，咱们接力于于遴荐有劲看成，确保历久通胀预期保执细致锚定，以利于咱们双重责任的两方面。声明还指出，“价钱贯通是健全贯通经济的基础，并撑执通盘好意思国东谈主的福祉。”这一主题在咱们的“好意思联储在倾听”活动中得到了响亮而清爽的体现。夙昔五年灾祸地教导咱们，高通胀带来的用功，突出是对那些最无力承担必需品更高本钱的东谈主们。

　　Third， our 2020 statement said that we would mitigate “shortfalls，” rather than “deviations，” from maximum employment． The use of “shortfalls” reflected the insight that our real-time assessments of the natural rate of unemployment--and hence of “maximum employment”--are highly uncertain． The later years of the post-GFC recovery featured employment running for an extended period above mainstream estimates of its sustainable level， along with inflation running persistently below our 2 percent target． In the absence of inflationary pressures， it might not be necessary to tighten policy based solely on uncertain real-time estimates of the natural rate of unemployment．

　　第三，咱们2020年的声明称，咱们将接力于于减轻与充分办事之间的“不及”（shortfalls），而非“偏离”（deviations）。使用“不及”一词响应了这么一种视力，即咱们对天然空隙率——也等于“充分办事”——的及时评估是高度不笃定的。在寰球金融危急后复苏的后期，办事在很长一段时刻内皆高于主流对其可执续水平的算计，而通胀则执续低于咱们2%的场地。在莫得通胀压力的情况下，可能莫得必要只是基于不笃定的天然空隙率及时算计来收紧战术。

　　We still have that view， but our use of the term “shortfalls” was not always interpreted as intended， raising communications challenges． In particular， the use of “shortfalls” was not intended as a commitment to permanently forswear preemption or to ignore labor market tightness． Accordingly， we removed “shortfalls” from our statement． Instead， the revised document now states more precisely that “the Committee recognizes that employment may at times run above real-time assessments of maximum employment without necessarily creating risks to price stability．” Of course， preemptive action would likely be warranted if tightness in the labor market or other factors pose risks to price stability．

　　咱们仍然执有这一不雅点，但咱们对“不及”一词的使用并未总能按预期被解读，从而带来了相通上的挑战。突出是，使用“不及”一词并非意在应许永久废弃后发制东谈主的看成或冷漠劳能源市集的殷切情景。因此，咱们从声明中删除了“不及”一词。相背，经校正的文献当今更精确地指出，“委员会意识到，办事偶然可能会高于对充分办事的及时评估，而毋庸然对价钱贯通组成风险。”天然，要是劳能源市集的殷切或其他身分对价钱贯通组成风险，遴荐后发制东谈主的看成可能是必要的。

　　The revised statement also notes that maximum employment is “the highest level of employment that can be achieved on a sustained basis in a context of price stability．” This focus on promoting a strong labor market underscores the principle that “durably achieving maximum employment fosters broad-based economic opportunities and benefits for all Americans．” The feedback we received at Fed Listens events reinforced the value of a strong labor market for American households， employers， and communities．

　　经校正的声明还指出，充分办事是“在价钱贯通的配景下不错执续杀青的最高办事水平”。这种对促进强盛劳能源市集的关爱，强调了“执久地杀青充分办事能为通盘好意思国东谈主带来基础往常的经济契机和利益”的原则。咱们在“好意思联储在倾听”活动中收到的反馈，强化了强盛劳能源市集对好意思国度庭、老板和社区的价值。

　　Fourth， consistent with the removal of “shortfalls，” we made changes to clarify our approach in periods when our employment and inflation objectives are not complementary． In those circumstances， we will follow a balanced approach in promoting them． The revised statement now more closely aligns with the original 2012 language． We take into account the extent of departures from our goals and the potentially different time horizons over which each is projected to return to a level consistent with our dual mandate． These principles guide our policy decisions today， as they did over the 2022--24 period， when the departure from our 2 percent inflation target was the overriding concern．

　　第四，与删除“不及”一词相一致，咱们作念出了修改，以阐发在咱们的办事和通胀场地不互补的时期咱们的设施。在这些情况下，咱们将遴荐一种均衡的设施来促进它们。经校正的声明当今与2012年的原始措辞更为一致。咱们会计议偏离咱们场地的进度，以及预计每个场地回来到与咱们双重责任相符水平的可能不同技术跨度。这些原则率领着咱们今天的战术决定，就像它们在2022-24年技术率领咱们相似，其时偏离咱们2%通胀场地是压倒一切的担忧。

　　In addition to these changes， there is a great deal of continuity with past statements． The document continues to explain how we interpret the mandate Congress has given us and describes the policy framework that we believe will best promote maximum employment and price stability． We continue to believe that monetary policy must be forward looking and consider the lags in its effects on the economy． For this reason， our policy actions depend on the economic outlook and the balance of risks to that outlook． We continue to believe that setting a numerical goal for employment is unwise， because the maximum level of employment is not directly measurable and changes over time for reasons unrelated to monetary policy．

　　除了这些变化，与夙昔的声明也有很大的谄谀性。该文献连接解释咱们怎样解读国会赋予咱们的责任，并形色咱们合计将最佳地促进充分办事和价钱贯通的战术框架。咱们连接合计，货币战术必须是前瞻性的，并计议其对经济影响的时滞。因此，咱们的战术看成取决于经济远景以及该远景靠近的风险均衡。咱们连接合计，为办事设定一个数字场地是不理智的，因为充分办事的水平无法径直揣度，何况会因与货币战术无关的原因随时刻变化。

　　We also continue to view a longer-run inflation rate of 2 percent as most consistent with our dual-mandate goals． We believe that our commitment to this target is a key factor helping keep longer-term inflation expectations well anchored． Experience has shown that 2 percent inflation is low enough to ensure that inflation is not a concern in household and business decisionmaking while also providing a central bank with some policy flexibility to provide accommodation during economic downturns．

　　咱们也连接合计，2%的历久通胀率最允洽咱们的双重责任场地。咱们信服，咱们对这一场地的应许是匡助保执历久通胀预期细致锚定的一个要津身分。教师标明，2%的通胀率弥散低，不错确保通胀不会成为家庭和企业决议中的一个担忧，同期也为央行在经济零落技术提供宽松战术提供了一些纯真性。

　　Finally， the revised consensus statement retained our commitment to conduct a public review roughly every five years． There is nothing magic about a five-year pace． That frequency allows policymakers to reassess structural features of the economy and to engage with the public， practitioners， and academics on the performance of our framework． It is also consistent with several global peers．

　　终末，经校正的共鸣声明保留了咱们大致每五年进行一次公开评估的应许。五年这个节律并莫得什么神奇之处。这个频率允许决议者重新评估经济的结构性特征，并与公众、从业者和学者就咱们框架的证实进行交流。这也与几个寰球同业的作念法相一致。

　　Conclusion

　　论断

　　In closing， I want to thank President Schmid and all his staff who work so diligently to host this outstanding event annually． Counting a couple of virtual appearances during the pandemic， this is the eighth time I have had the honor to speak from this podium． Each year， this symposium offers the opportunity for Federal Reserve leaders to hear ideas from leading economic thinkers and focus on the challenges we face． The Kansas City Fed was wise to lure Chair Volcker to this national park more than 40 years ago， and I am proud to be part of that tradition．

　　终末，我要感谢施密德主席和他通盘忙绿做事以每年举办这一凸起活动的管当事人谈主员。算上疫情技术的几次线上出面，这已是我第八次有幸在这个讲台上发言。每年，这个研讨会皆为好意思联储的辅导者们提供契机，听取顶尖经济想想家的主义，并专注于咱们靠近的挑战。四十多年前，堪萨斯城联储将沃尔克主席招引到这个国度公园是理智之举，我很清高能成为这一传统的一部分。

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